Envisioning the Future (Augmented Reality)
Nobody knows what the future might bring. While many people who live on a day-to-day basis love this uncertainty, it can be problematic for companies that need strategies to plan ahead. Luckily for them the statement is not only problematic but also untrue. To truly ‘see’ the future is only possible for those that practice the shady business of divination. However, many developments arise from certain social needs and are being fulfilled by taking predictable steps. The process of these steps are called trends. By analyzing trends in fields such as technology and society an approximation of a possible future can be created. In this way a possible future does not remain vague but becomes predictable.
The process of creating possible futures, also called future scenarios, has been divided in eight development steps. First the Focal Issue has to be determined, describing the main question that has to be considered in the future scenarios. In most of the cases the focal issue is determined by a client who wants to know how to manage an enterprise to better meet future challenges. When the Focal issue has been set all Actors and Factors that influence the enterprise must be investigated. If an actor or factor influences the enterprise it can (partly) shape its future and must be taken into consideration. With a clear understanding of the actors and factors the underlying trends can be determined to find out how these actors and factors will evolve. These trends can then be placed in an Uncertainty/Importance Matrix, determining if trends are certain or uncertain and if they are important or unimportant. The trends that are important and certain will form the foundation of all future scenarios. Important but uncertain trends will differentiate the future scenarios from each other. The two trends with the most differentiating outcomes are set on two axis to create a Strategic Space. The created scenarios are to be plotted into the strategic space to create a Scenario Plot that gives a visual representation of the scenarios and their differences. After the scenarios have been determined and plotted the Product Development phase begins, in which the function and workings of the enterprise is redesigned to fit one or more scenarios. Lastly the final concept has to be Tested on Robustness to see if the new enterprise concept will hold should the future not be conform to the future scenarios. The more robust the concept, the better it will hold in different futures.
Project Art Museum
After drastic changes in financial support and social responsibilities the Rijksmuseum Twenthe is currently changing their enterprise to better meet the future. Not only for the Rijksmuseum Twenthe but for all the Dutch museums the future is uncertain as their role in society and their dependencies change. The slideshow above shows how the process of creating future scenarios for Dutch art museums was executed. Within the Creative scenario education is focussed on the development of personal interests, robotics take over undesirable jobs and urbanization has created (mega)cities that thrive with social creativity. Instead of being in one place the museum will be scattered across the city as Museum Islands, bringing art to the citizens and facilitating the development of their personal cultural interests. Other cultural sites, such as workshops, ateliers, theaters, and dance schools can join and become Museum Islands. Below an example is sketched of how augmented reality can display information and guide members to the Museum Islands that meets their personal interests.
Augmented Museum Assistant